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創新高!全球債務規模達247萬億美元

新華財金 CNBC
2018-07-12 16:46

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 據本週三發佈的一份報告顯示,2018年1季度全球債務規模達到247萬億美元,創下新高。其中,非金融行業債務達到186萬億美元。
 
國際金融協會(IIF)發佈的報告顯示,全球債務占GDP比例已經超過318%,這是兩年來的首個季度性增長。很多成熟市場的企業債務和家庭債務也達到創紀錄水準。
 
前所未有的債務重擔,美聯儲收緊貨幣政策以及貿易戰的影響都讓投資者擔心不已。
 
法國外貿銀行(Natixis)美洲首席經濟學家Joseph LaVorgna表示,市場人士更應該擔憂的是企業債務。
 
Joseph LaVorgna 警告稱,“企業杠杆高,對高利率更為敏感”,並在一份研究報告中解釋道,企業債務占GDP比例如此之高的一個主要原因在於量化寬鬆和前瞻性引導導致此前利率處於歷史低位。
 
LaVorgna表示,“企業以人為調低的利率在資本市場借錢,並將借來的錢用於在股市買股票。股權融資債務的內在不穩定性表明,經濟衰退通常對投資支出造成異常嚴重的打擊。”
 
分析人士警告稱,市場波動以及貿易戰可能造成的通脹有可能會對資產造成巨大影響。但標普投資顧問服務總裁Mike Thompson表示,截至目前,市場仍然非常有彈性。
 
他還談到特朗普近期提出的針對2000億美元中國商品徵收關稅一事。“但是市場已經對貿易言論越來越不敏感,這點做的很好。”
 
Mike Thompson 表示,“市場會下跌然後再恢復。你不能見識太短,如果你對每件事都做出反應的話,你的投資會被搞砸的。很多時候都是市場自己在搞清楚到底是怎麼回事”。
 
其他一些知名人物也對全球債務負擔提出警告。國際貨幣基金組織(IMF)第一副總裁David Lipton去年年末向CNBC表示,高債務負擔以及低利率構成了極大的市場風險。美國國家安全主任Dan Coats將美國的21萬億美元債務稱之為“一個危及美國經濟和國家安全的可怕威脅”。
 
IIF的報告指出,非美國借款人和新興市場也在關注特定風險。尤其是隨著收益率和利率攀升,再融資和償還以美元計價的債務都變得更貴了。
 
Global debt has hit another high, climbing to $247 trillion in the first quarter of 2018, according to a report published Wednesday. Of that figure, the non-financial sector accounted for $186 trillion.
 
The debt-to-gross domestic product (GDP) ratio has exceeded 318 percent, marking its first quarterly rise in two years, the report by the Institute of International Finance (IIF) said. This is amid record levels of corporate and household debt in many mature markets.
 
The unprecedented debt load is one of several investor concerns, in addition to worries about the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy tightening and the impacts of a trade war.
 
It's the debt in the corporate sector that market players should be worried about, said Joseph LaVorgna, chief Americas economist at Natixis.
 
“The corporate sector is highly leveraged and could be very vulnerable to higher interest rates,” he warned, explaining in a research note that a primary reason corporate debt-to-GDP is so high is thanks to interest rates being historically low due to quantitative easing and forward guidance.
 
“Firms have used artificially low rates to borrow in the capital markets and only buy back stock in the equity market,” LaVorgna said. “The inherent instability of debt over equity financing suggests that the next downturn could hit investment spending unusually hard.”
 
Market volatility and likely inflation due to a trade war, which is currently brewing between the U.S. and China, could in this case have an outsized effect on assets, analysts have cautioned. But, so far, markets have been surprisingly resilient, according to Mike Thompson, president at S&P’s Investment Advisory Service.
 
He also referenced President Donald Trump’s latest tariff threat on $200 billion worth of Chinese goods. “But markets have done a good job of becoming more and more desensitized at the trade rhetoric.”
 
“The market will dip and then come back,” he said. “You can’t be too short-term with this, because if you reacted to everything you’d really as an investor blow yourself up. A lot of this is the market trying to figure out what’s really going on here.”
 
Other high-profile figures have issued stark warnings about the global debt load. The IMF’s first deputy managing director, David Lipton, told CNBC late last year that high debt and low interest rates posed the greatest market risks. On the home front, U.S. National Security Director Dan Coats called America’s $21 trillion debt “a dire threat to our economic and national security.”
 
Non-U.S. borrowers and emerging markets are also looking at particular risks, according to the IIF report, especially as yields and interest rates rise, making refinancing and repaying dollar-denominated debt significantly more expensive.
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