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中美貿易戰對亞洲經濟體來說是一把雙刃劍

新華財金 CNBC
2018-07-04 11:18

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亞洲地區的貿易量和貿易活動一直在上升,但這可能很快會因中美貿易緊張局勢的變化而改變。

根據花旗集團對客戶貿易活動提供的支援得出的資料,過去一年,亞洲貿易走廊的增長有所增加。

從2017年4月到2018年3月,花旗集團的韓國和印度客戶之間的業務增長了55%,同期,中國與東盟國家之間的業務上漲了66%。該行表示,總體而言,亞洲地區的貿易增速同比增長了26%。

花旗集團亞太地區業務負責人Munir Nanji向CNBC表示,隨著消費的增長,亞洲“越來越依賴亞洲”。

根據世界貿易組織(WTO)的統計資料,2017年全球商品貿易量攀升4.7%,這是自2011年以來的最高水準,與2016年1.8%的增長率相比大大提升了。2017年的增長是由亞洲進口需求的上升以及投資和消費支出的增加而推動的。WTO表示,事實上,2017年亞洲的進出口貿易增速在全球是最快的,分別為6.7%和9.6%。

然而,專家稱,美國和中國之間持續的貿易爭端可能很快開始對亞洲尤其是新興市場產生影響。

WTO承認,2018年和2019年的經濟前景存在風險。“與這些普遍積極的跡象相平衡的是,反貿易情緒高漲,各國政府越來越願意採取限制性貿易措施。”

但對於亞洲的某些市場來說,這也可能是一件好事,因為企業正在尋找美國以外的其他供應來源。

是什麼推動了亞洲國家內部的貿易增長?

Munir Nanji表示,中國和東盟地區之間的貿易增長主要是由基礎設施建設需求推動的,而韓國與印度之間,汽車和電子產品則蓬勃發展。

這些國家的共同主題是科技,中國和韓國的企業越來越多地將投資和技術帶到亞洲其他地區。

Munir Nanji表示,“一般來說,亞洲人從亞洲公司購買更多的產品。需求和供應均來自于亞洲。”而在過去一直是美國和歐洲企業提供產品供應。

他舉例說,多數智慧手機的零部件大多是在亞洲生產的。

各國的政策倡議也有助於推動貿易增長。這包括鼓勵企業在印度生產產品的“印度製造計畫”(Make in India initiative)以及上海自由貿易區(Shanghai Free-Trade Zone)。

貿易爭端可能改變貿易發展趨勢

最近幾周,中國和美國都威脅要對彼此的產品徵收關稅。

摩根大通(J.P. Morgan)的分析師在一份報告中寫道,如果美國總統特朗普(Donald Trump)提出的各種關稅措施生效且導致中國對美國的出口下降,那麼亞洲其他地區將產生連鎖反應。

 “間接聯繫將衝擊傳播到該地區,並可能影響貿易和增長……產品類別主要包括高科技產品,這其中包括電子產品。”

 “就其本質而言,這些產品高度依賴於緊密結合的供應鏈。在這種程度上,這就能將任何貿易衝擊傳播到該地區。”

分析人士稱,這種影響在韓國和臺灣等地區將為最明顯。

但對一些市場來說,這可能是個好消息。例如,印度可能會從這場貿易戰中在棉花出口領域獲益。

作為全球最大的纖維出口國的美國已經壟斷了中國的大部分需求。但根據路透社的報導,中國對包括棉花在內的美國農產品徵收25%的關稅,以報復美國威脅的關稅,這可能會使得印度將在中國佔據更大的市場份額。

事實上,印度已經簽署了向中國運送50萬包(8.5萬噸)新季收成的合同,這是罕見的先期協議。

花旗集團的Munir Nanji表示:“如果中國決定不從美國購買農產品,其可能會轉移向亞洲其他地區購買。另一方面,美國需要將這些農產品出口到其他地方,所以它將尋找另外的管道。”

“因此,當出現貿易戰的時候,相關國家不得不去別的市場。而其他國家將從中受益,其中一些國家可能是在亞洲,或者拉丁美洲。貿易走廊將會改變,問題是,它將轉移到哪裡。”

Trade volume and activities have been going up within Asia, but that could soon change depending on which way trade tensions between the U.S. and China swing.

In the past year, growth in Asian trade corridors has increased, according to data derived from Citi's support of clients' trading activities.

The bank's client business between South Korea and India went up by 55 percent between April 2017 and March 2018. Between China and the ASEAN (Association of Southeast Asian Nations) region, it shot up by 66 percent in the same period. Overall, its growth in Asia has gone up by 26 percent year on year, the bank said.

Increasingly, Asia “is relying more on Asia” as consumption goes up, Munir Nanji, Citi Global Subsidiaries Group's head for Asia Pacific, told CNBC.

According to statistics from the World Trade Organization, world trade volume for goods went up by 4.7 percent in 2017, the highest since 2011 and a leap from the 1.8 percent growth in 2016. The 2017 increase was driven by rising import demand from Asia, as well as increased investment and consumption expenditure. In fact, Asia had the fastest trade volume growth of any region in 2017 for both exports and imports — 6.7 percent and 9.6 percent, respectively, the WTO said.

However, the ongoing trade spat between the U.S. and China may soon start to have an impact on Asia, especially emerging markets, experts say.

The WTO acknowledged that risk in its outlook for 2018 and 2019: "Balanced against these broadly positive signs is a rising tide of anti-trade sentiment and the increased willingness of governments to employ restrictive trade measures."

But it could also be a good thing for certain markets in Asia, as companies look for alternative supply sources beyond the U.S.

What’s driving trade flows within Asia?
Trade-related growth between China and the ASEAN region is fueled mainly by infrastructure needs, while between South Korea and India, automotive and electronic goods are flourishing, according to Nanji.

A common theme is technology: Firms in China and South Korea are increasingly bringing their investments and tech into other parts of Asia.

“Generally, Asians are buying more from Asian companies. Both demand and supply is coming from Asia,” said Nanji, who noted that it used to be American and European companies providing the supply.

For instance, the components of most smartphones are mostly manufactured in Asia, he said.

Various countries’ initiatives are also helping to drive growth. That includes the Make in India initiative, which encourages companies to manufacture their goods in India, and the Shanghai Free-Trade Zone.

Trade spat could shift the movements of goods
In recent weeks, both China and the U.S. have threatened to impose tariffs on each other's products.

J.P. Morgan analysts wrote in a note that there would be knock-on effects for the rest of Asia if the various tariffs suggested by U.S. President Donald Trump were to come into effect and result in a fall in Chinese exports to the U.S.

“Indirect links propagate shocks into the region, and could impact trade and growth ... the product categories encompass mainly high-tech products, which would include electronics,” the note said.

“By its very nature, such products are highly reliant on tightly integrated supply chains. To that extent, this would propagate any trade shock into the region.”

The impact would be felt most in countries such as South Korea and Taiwan, the analysts said.

But it might spell good news for some markets. India, for example, would likely benefit from the spat — in the area of cotton exports.

The U.S., the world's biggest exporter of the fiber, had cornered the bulk of Chinese demand. But China's move to impose a 25 percent import tax on American farm commodities, including cotton, in retaliation for tariffs enacted by the U.S., may allow India to grab a bigger share of the Chinese market, according to a Reuters report.

In fact, India has already signed contracts to ship 500,000 bales (85,000 tonnes) of its new season harvest to China, in rare advance deals, officials said.

“If China decides not to buy agricultural products from the U.S., that could move to different parts of Asia to buy, to source it. The U.S., on the other hand, needs to export that somewhere else, so it would find another corridor," Citi's Nanji said.

“So when you have a trade war, the countries involved would have to go somewhere else. So other countries would benefit. Some of them could be in Asia, or Latin America. There will be shifts in trade corridors ... the question is, where it shifts.”

Source: CNBC | Translated by Vanessa Chen
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